With the final round of games about to start in the World Cup Groups, there is a wide range of possibilities for the 32 teams competing for glory in the FIFA World Cup 2014 Brazil. Here are the various permutations in the last round of Group Stages.
Brazil and Cameroon are joint top of the group on 4 points – Brazil on top with 1 goal difference. They will both qualify if they beat Cameroon and Croatia respectively.
If Brazil draw or lose to Cameroon, then Croatia, currently on 3 points could still win the group if they beat Mexico. A Croatia-Mexico draw, and Brazil defeat, would see Brazil eliminated on goal difference to Croatia.
Qualified: Netherlands, Chile
Eliminated: Australia, Spain
Having secured maximum points in their first 2 games, Netherlands and Chile face each other on Monday, looking for a victory they hope will enable them to avoid facing Brazil in the next round, assuming the hosts top Group A.
A draw would be enough to give the Dutch top spot due to a goal difference of 1 (+5 for Netherlands & +4 for Chile).
Australia and Spain, also meeting on Monday, are battling for pride alone. The 2010 champions need to win to avoid the bottom spot due to Australia’s superior goal difference.
Colombia are top of Group C with 6 points from 2 wins but need at least a draw against Japan on Tuesday to secure the top spot and the reward of a knock out game against the runners up of Group D.
Ivory Coast, on 3 points, would qualify with a win over Greece in their remaining game on the same day.
Greece, with 1 point from 2 games could reach the last 16 if they beat Ivory Coast to reach 4 points and Japan also with 1 point draw or lose to Colombia.
If Japan or Greece both win, then the second position would depend on goal difference, with Greece needing to catch a 2 goal deficit to Japan. If they ended level on goal difference, it would go down to goals scored over the 3 group games.
Qualified: Costa Rica
Italy will qualify for the knock out games with a win against Uruguay in their game on Tuesday or a draw given their superior goal difference. Uruguay must win to join Costa Rica.
If Costa Rica lose to England, and Italy or Uruguay win, the top 2 teams would finish on 6 points and the group winner would be decided on goal difference. Costa Rica is leading on goal difference of +3 to Italy’s 0.
England, at the bottom with 0 points, need a win to have a chance of catching up with Uruguay or Italy to avoid the humiliation of the last spot. But even that would be impossible if Uruguay and Italy draw.
With a maximum of 6 points and an enviable goal difference of +6, France look assured of qualification of Group E but do not yet have mathematical certainty.
It would take a heavy Ecuador defeat of France and a big win from Switzerland over Honduras to cause that. Should France win or draw against Ecuador, they would top the Group and face the runners up of Group F in the knock out stages.
Though bottom with 0 points, Honduras could still qualify if they beat Switzerland and Ecuador lose, though goal difference would end up being the deciding factor. Honduras would have to hope the games produce a 5 goal swing between themselves and Ecuador, who are on 3 points like the Swiss.
Switzerland will be hoping France beat Ecuador, which would mean a draw or win against Honduras would promote them to second in the Group.
Nigeria and Iran are battling for the second qualifying spot, with Nigeria on 4 points and Iran 1. To have any chance, Iran have to beat Bosnia, who are already out on 0 points and hope that Argentina defeat Nigeria.
A 1-0 win for Iran and 1-0 defeat for Nigeria would leave them level on both points and goal difference. In that scenario, the teams must be separated by goals scored in all matches, then points between them and goals between them. But given Iran and Nigeria would have both scored one goal each in the group, and they drew 0-0 against each other, that would not separate them so there would have to be a drawing of lots.
Germany and USA on 4 points, Ghana and Portugal on 1.Germany and USA play with each other on Tuesday and a draw would ensure passage for both and top spot for Germany on goal difference. A win for either would open the doors for Ghana and Portugal to slip into 2nd place.
If Germany were to win, Portugal would need to beat Ghana and hope they can overturn the a goal difference of 5 with USA. If USA wins, Portugal would have to win an close a deficit of 8 goals with Germany to pip them.
Ghana have a better goal difference than Portugal, -1 to -4, so if they beat Portugal and USA lose, then Ghana would go through provided they overcome the goal difference of 2 between them and USA.
If Ghana wins 1-0 and USA lost 1-0, both would be on 4 points with the same goal difference. In that case, USA would qualify because they beat Ghana earlier in the Group games.
Belgium has already qualified on a maximum of 6 points from 2 games. Algeria is in pole position for 2nd place after securing a win against South Korea.
A win for Algeria against Russia would ensure that they go through to the knock out stages. If they draw, Russia are eliminated but South Korea could sneak to 2nd place if they win heavily against Belgium.
If Algeria were to win and Belgium were to lose, Algeria would top the Group on goal difference.
If both South Korea and Russia win, they move to 4 points each from 1 now, and 2nd place to be decided on goal difference between the 2 of them. (Russia has 1 goal advantage now)
If Russia beat Algeria and South Korea draw or lose against Belgium, Russia takes 2nd place on 4 points.
For South Korea to finish second, they would need to defeat Belgium by a healthy margin and hope that Algeria and Russia draw, or Russia win Algeria by a narrow margin.
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